Guggenheimer: There is going to be more competition for a few good assets. This scarcity will drive the price of these assets very high, and business development people will push to pay top dollar simply to seal a deal and justify their existence. We haven't mentioned it, but I expect that Big Pharma companies have an annual target number of deals to get done. This can no doubt lead to some crazy valuations.

Craighead: I see more separation between winners and losers in this space. A successful licensing strategy for the next few years will focus on who can negotiate a consistent patchwork of small deals—in the under $500 million range—rather than pinning all your hopes on that big deal around a compound with blockbuster potential. A solid portfolio of small products, with their impressively high margins, can compensate for a lack of blockbusters —and at a much lower level of volatility in the market.

Simes: Let's not forget that it is just as difficult and time-consuming to do a $100 million deal as it is to do a billion-dollar deal.

DeBenedetto: Regulatory risk will continue to complicate the metrics in deal assessment. How do you quantify the implications of the "black box?" FDA restrictions on marketing are now established; this can occur irrespective of what the advisory committees might recommend. Authorization is only a provisional step. And regulatory risk is at its highest in markets where the future growth potential is supposed to shatter precedents: China and India. Companies must have a presence in the emerging markets, but this is no guarantee of profits to compensate for the tighter controls coming in the mature countries.

Davis: The generic threat is real. Bigger players like Teva are seeking to move up the value chain with a commitment to innovation, while at the same time becoming more aggressive in staking claim to the low-end commodity segment. The formulation expertise of generic companies is good and getting better. This is easing the path to generic entry, aided by a sympathetic policy climate in Washington.

Simes: The US market is still front-and-center to deal-making strategy. In that regard, the 2012 election is the pivot point for the entire industry. There are four key outstanding issues: progress of the health reform legislation, including the prospect for pricing negotiations based on federal purchasing power; patent reform; a corporate tax overhaul; and regulatory uncertainty. Who controls Congress and the White House will be critical to the outcome.