In addition to the drivers already mentioned, we have also seen growth from successful lifecycle management strategies. The
two largest-grossing products in the preventative vaccine industry, Gardasil and Prevnar, are perfect examples. Gardasil for
instance, doubled its eligible recipient base after receiving approval for male anal cancer, genital warts, and pre-cancerous
lesion indications. In January 2013, Pfizer's Prevnar similarly received a nod from the FDA for an age 50+ expansion, a decision
that has led Wall Street analysts to project an increase in sales from $4 billion to $5 billion a year. Vaccines that currently
lead market sales have and will continue to provide a steady source of growth, and manufacturers intend to leverage R&D, manufacturing,
and marketing capacity and increase year-on-year investments on promotional spend, post-marketing surveillance studies, and
Industry growth has led to M&A activity: Many large-scale manufacturers have turned to vaccines to drive sustained growth and branded revenue. In 2010, the industry
reported over 195 vaccine partnering deals, including Johnson & Johnson's acquisition of Crucell, a $2.3-billion deal which
strategically introduced the big pharma conglomerate to the mid-size vaccine manufacturer's portfolio of pediatric, endemic,
and travel vaccine assets.
Other notable deals include GSK's recent $5.25 billion initial cash purchase of Novartis's non-influenza vaccine assets, in
return for the transfer of GSK's oncology franchise and the development of a distinct consumer healthcare business. This brings
to GSK a portfolio of travel assets that includes a promising meningitis vaccine franchise. Sanofi Pasteur's acquisition of
Acambis in 2008 augmented the second-largest vaccine manufacturer's flu and tailored multivalent combinations with West Nile
and dengue fever travel vaccine assets. In 2007, AstraZeneca acquired MedImmune for $15.6 billion in a deal that through Synagis
and FluMist, positioned the company as the sixth-largest vaccines manufacturer. Takeda (see sidebar) launched a new business
unit dedicated to vaccines in early 2012, and Mitsubishi Tanabe acquired Canadian company Medicago, thereby getting access
to Medicago's innovative technology for producing vaccine-like particles from tobacco plant leaves.
Takeda’s New Divison Charts Course to Global Growth
What's next in vaccines
The next generation in vaccines development will rely on platform strategies founded on genomics, reverse vaccinology, high
throughput DNA sequencing, new plant and insect based expression and production systems, and new more potent vaccine adjuvants.
These developments carry the potential to rapidly produce novel, optimal and cost-effective vaccine targets that carry high
chances of success in clinical development programs. Promising new vaccine candidates such as meningococcal-B, GBS, methicillin-resistant
Staphylococcus aureus, pneumococcal, and pathogenic E. coli are already in development. Not only do these new platforms improve the prospects for vaccines against major infectious diseases
such as AIDS, tuberculosis, dengue, and malaria, they also provide a basis for therapeutic-based vaccine development against
other new and emerging conditions, including allergies, autoimmune disorders, and cancer.
Business points to ponder
New markets and diseases, specialized target populations, and increasing needs for preventive vaccines all lead to new opportunity,
but also impose new challenges. The key strategic questions manufacturers will need to address include:
» How to price products whose commercial benefit will rest predominantly in emerging markets?
» How to effectively capture niche populations within an established vaccine disease area?
» Within the structure of public health requirements and recommendations, how can technology advances be effectively translated
into commercial advantage?
The benefits that the vaccine market offers will accrue to those who are able to creatively adapt and build on past approaches
while incorporating the advances of new science and a more supportive policy environment: vaccines are no longer a fringe
business—it's the "must have" in any public health agenda.
Kevin Fitzpatrick is a Principal at IMS Consulting Group. He can be reached at KFitzpatrick@imscg.com
. Nitin Mohan is Engagement Manager at IMS Consulting. He can be reached at NMohan@imscg.com
. The authors wish to thank Amy Guan for her contributions.