Last year, CMS projected that the nation will spend $2.6 trillion for healthcare in 2009, which equals 17 percent of gross domestic product. Under current policies, that amount is projected to rise to 20 percent of GDP by 2017, and nearly 50 percent in 2082, according to the CBO reports, "Key Issues in Analyzing Major Health Insurance Proposals" and "Budget Options on Health Care" (available at http://www.cbo.gov/). Annual healthcare spending will increase from $8,300 per person today to $13,000 by 2017, and federal outlays for Medicare and Medicaid will grow from $720 billion to about $1.4 trillion by 2019. The number of uninsured people is projected to rise from 45 million today to about 54 million in 10 years because health insurance premiums will increase much faster than income, making coverage more difficult to afford.
Drugs DecliningOne bright spot on the healthcare horizon is a slowdown in expenditures for prescription drugs. In 2007, the growth rate for spending on drugs hit a 45-year low, according to the CMS Office of the Actuary. Outlays rose only 4.9 percent, to $227.5 billion—that's a little more than half the 8.6 percent rise in 2006, and the slowest rate of growth since 1963.
Wider use of generics and retailer discount programs have also curbed total drug prices, which rose a paltry 1.4 percent in 2007—even less than the 3.5 percent price increase in 2006. Brand name drug prices increased at a higher rate, but less than in previous years. CMS also noted that drug utilization declined in some therapeutic areas due to concerns about drug safety, as the proliferation of black-box warnings from FDA discouraged prescribing of certain medicines. Fewer blockbuster drugs coming to market further reduced the number of products able to command premium prices.
CMS statistician Micah Hartman noted that the slowdown in drug outlays was "one of the major factors driving down overall healthcare spending growth in 2007." Total expenditures for healthcare increased only 6.1 percent in 2007, to $2.2 trillion, the smallest increase since 1998.
The Push for Biosimilars
Analysts predict that savings from generics could be extended by promoting competition for biotech therapies. CBO calculations support such a move, projecting $9.2 billion in government savings over 10 years from an abbreviated pathway for FDA approval of follow-on biologics (FOBs). CBO assumes a 12-year exclusivity period for brand-name products and limited requirements for duplicating innovator clinical trails. Medicare would save the most, but other government health programs could also gain from access to less costly therapies.
The savings would be even greater—about $12 billion over ten years—if CMS also revised billing codes for biologics administered by physicians under Medicare Part B. Placing an FOB in the same billing code as a brand-name counterpart allows CMS to reimburse physicians based on a weighted average of the prices paid to all manufacturers in the group. Doctors who dispense less expensive FOBs thus can retain the difference between product cost and Medicare payment, while those who prescribe more expensive brand-name products would face a financial penalty.