Strategic Planning in the Rebate Economy: What Pharma Must Do Now

Author(s):

35 years of manufacturer rebates by any other name.

William Flemming, PharmD
Strategic advisor
Petauri

For more than three decades, U.S. pharmacy policy has operated under a consistent—if complex—structure: Well-intended programs, built to improve access and affordability, have evolved into a system reliant on manufacturer rebates.

Key Takeaways

US Pharma policy relies on a system of manufacturer rebates to improve access and affordability.
Rebates account for a significant percentage of drug spending.
Rather than wait for the ideal reform, manufacturers must equip themselves to succeed in the environment they’re in.

Whether the banner reads OBRA '90, 340B, the Medicare Modernization Act, or the Inflation Reduction Act, the mechanism has remained remarkably consistent:

Extract price concessions from drug manufacturers to fund patient coverage—without ever directly addressing drug pricing transparency or affordability at the point of sale.

A brief walk through 35 years

1990 - OBRA '90: The Original Rebate Blueprint

Established mandatory Medicaid rebates from manufacturers
Retail prices remained high, while affordability was handled post-sale

1992 - 340B: Discounted Drugs Dressed as Mission Work

Required drugmakers to offer discounts to safety-net providers
Today, many IDNs (integrated delivery networks) use the program beyond its original scope

2003 - Medicare Modernization Act: Rebate Renaissance

Created Medicare Part D, fueling PBM-driven rebate negotiations
A new indirect toll on manufacturers emerged as the price of market access

2022 - Inflation Reduction Act: The Latest Vintage

Introduced Medicare drug price negotiations and inflation rebates
Still fundamentally reliant on post-sale discounts rather than price reform

2023 by the numbers

The following table and chart show the 2023 estimated total drug spend and manufacturer rebates/discounts across key programs:

Medicaid (OBRA '90): $66.7B spend | $48.5B rebates
340B Program: $124.1B spend | $57.8B discounts
Medicare Part D: $145.6B spend | $48.6B rebates
IRA Inflation Rebates: N/A spend | ~$7.2B projected rebates

Where pharma has a choice—and where it doesn't

One of the most misunderstood aspects of manufacturer rebates is this:
Some are voluntary, others are mandated by law.

Rebates Manufacturers Must Provide (By Law):

Medicaid (OBRA '90): Mandatory based on statutory formulas
340B: Required for covered entities to access Medicaid/Medicare markets
IRA Inflation Rebates: Required when price increases exceed inflation

Rebates Manufacturers Choose to Provide:

Medicare Part D and Commercial: Negotiated with PBMs for formulary access
Value-Based Contracts: Optional and performance-based
Copay Assistance: Discretionary programs to support patient access

If reform is on the table, so is clarification - distinguishing legal obligations from market negotiations is essential.

The core truth

Over five administrations and countless reforms, the foundation has stayed the same:

A well-intended rebate infrastructure now functions as the primary lever for affordability.
The public illusion of 'high-value innovation' is preserved, while most pricing adjustments happen behind the scenes––after the drug reaches the market.

Where we go from here

Layering rebate upon rebate distorts incentives across the supply chain:

Pricing strategies
Access design
Formulary negotiations
Patient out-of-pocket burdens

If we are serious about long-term sustainability, we must ask:
Is the rebate infrastructure still serving its original, well-intended purpose - or has it become a substitute for real reform?

Strategic options in today's reality

While the industry debates what the future of rebates should look like, manufacturers face the urgent reality of operating in the system as it exists today. Workarounds have become the norm—clever, even necessary—but they fall short of being transparent, consistent, or sustainable. Every decision around pricing, access, and contracting now happens within an environment where multiple rebate layers intersect with regulatory obligations, payer dynamics, and shifting policy landscapes.

Rather than wait for the ideal reform, manufacturers must equip themselves to succeed in the environment they’re in—while shaping the one they want. That’s where executional strategy meets policy vision.

Strategic Recommendations: Competing in the Rebate Economy While Shaping What Comes Next

Reclaim Channel Visibility

Manufacturers must invest in tools and analytics to better understand where rebates intersect with 340B claims, commercial leakage, and Medicare dynamics. Real-time visibility into pricing and claims flow is critical for rebate accuracy and enforcement.

Redesign Contracts with Guardrails

New rebate contracts should include protections against duplicate discounts and channel erosion. This includes exclusionary clauses, dual pricing where permitted, and data-sharing agreements that align incentives across the supply chain.

Diversify Distribution Pathways

Explore models beyond traditional wholesalers—such as direct-to-patient and direct-to-provider dispensing—to reduce dependence on intermediaries that obscure pricing and value. Innovative channel strategies can protect both margin and transparency.

Align Access Strategies with Policy Signals

Keep a dynamic pulse on federal regulations, 340B enforcement trends, and payer behavior. Market access teams must be as policy-literate as they are commercial-savvy to respond effectively to shifting enforcement and rebate expectations.

Build the Post-Rebate Playbook Now

Whether through value-based contracting, alternative payment models, or integrated care partnerships, begin prototyping what comes after rebates. Manufacturers that pilot and scale next-gen access models today will have first-mover advantage when the broader system shifts.

The rebate economy isn’t ending tomorrow—but its dominance is no longer guaranteed. Manufacturers that win will be those who stop treating rebates as a given and start treating them as a strategic inflection point. What comes next depends on who’s willing to lead.

References

Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS). Medicaid Drug Spending Dashboard. https://www.medicaid.gov/medicaid/prescription-drugs/state-drug-utilization-data/index.html
CMS Medicare Part D Drug Spending Dashboard. https://www.cms.gov/research-statistics-data-and-systems/statistics-trends-and-reports/information-on-prescription-drugs

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