One executive cautioned that alternative cold-chain corridors cannot be set up overnight and are not always available, while another warned that temperature-controlled shipments risk missing connections unless proper storage and handling are secured at each point along rerouted paths.1
Which medicines are most at risk?
Medicines requiring strict refrigeration and those with short shelf lives are most vulnerable. Prashant Yadav, senior fellow for global health at the Council on Foreign Relations, identified cancer drugs, particularly monoclonal antibodies, as among the highest-risk products.1
Typical stock levels for such medicines in the Gulf run around three months, but some customers have already warned suppliers they could run low within four to six weeks if conditions do not improve. Delays in oncology drug delivery carries serious consequences for patients, who may be forced to restart treatment courses or see their disease progress.
The disruption also hold the potential to extend beyond finished medicines, as executives flag potential shortages of packaging components including vial stoppers and IV bag plastics, components that are themselves shipped through affected routes.1
"It's not always a shortage of the medicine itself," said David Weeks, who covers supply chain for Moody's. "In some cases, it's the little stopper on the vial where the dosage is extracted."
What is the industry’s response?
For now, logistics providers say supplies are holding, including Dorothee Becher, head of air logistics for healthcare at Kuehne+Nagel, who said carriers are successfully reaching Gulf markets through alternative routes and that healthcare cargo is being prioritized.1
Other executives cautioned that the situation requires constant management as airspace restrictions shift rapidly, and that risks will rise significantly if the conflict persists, leading to Gulf and Asian inventories beginning to run down.1
Sources
- Middle East war disrupts pharma air routes, risks cancer drugs supply Reuters March 16, 2026 https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/middle-east-war-disrupts-pharma-air-routes-risks-cancer-drugs-supply-2026-03-16/
- Strait of Hormuz: What happens if Iran shuts global oil corridor? BBC March 12, 2026 https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c78n6p09pzno