Lilly announced it will be attending the 44^th JP Morgan Healthcare Conference this year and will hold a fireside chat on Tuesday, January 13^th at 5:15 pm, Est.

2025

One of the big stories out of the 43^rd Annual JP Morgan Healthcare Conference last year was Lilly acknowledging that it would miss its 2024 revenue guidance by roughly $400 million, a shortfall tied largely to supply constraints and slower-than-anticipated conversion of demand into realized sales for its two GLP-1 medications, Mounjaro and Zepbound.²

The miss was notable not because it signaled waning interest despite demand remaining high, but because it underscored the execution challenges that accompany hypergrowth in a tightly regulated manufacturing environment.

Lilly framed the issue as logistical rather than structural, reiterating confidence in long-term growth. It pointed to continued investment in manufacturing capacity and a multi-year expansion plan aimed at alleviating bottlenecks in the GLP-1 receptor agonist market. Still, the episode served as a reminder that scale, not science, would be Lilly’s defining test in the near term.

That theme carried throughout earnings updates and conference commentary throughout 2025, with fourth-quarter results showing continued strength for Mounjaro and Zepbound, with sales accelerating as additional supply came online, highlighting the volatility in forecasting amid unprecedented demand. Analysts and investors took note not only of the numbers, but of Lilly’s evolving messaging, less about upside surprise, more about disciplined execution and sustainability.

Beyond diabetes and obesity, Lilly has continued to emphasize pipeline breadth as a counterweight to its reliance on incretins. Oncology, neuroscience, and immunology remain central to the company’s longer-term strategy, even if they are currently overshadowed by the commercial success of its metabolic franchise. Executives have repeatedly stressed that the company’s R&D engine has not narrowed, despite the outsized attention paid to GLP-1s.

Lilly’s experience also became something of a case study for the broader industry. In panel discussions and analyst notes, the company was cited as an example of how regulatory scrutiny, manufacturing scale-up, and payer dynamics are increasingly shaping outcomes just as much as clinical differentiation.

2024

Lilly’s recalibration became more explicit toward the end of 2024, when the company formally updated its revenue outlook and provided initial guidance for 2025. In a November announcement, the company lowered its full-year 2024 revenue expectations, citing supply constraints for Mounjaro and Zepbound as demand continued to outpace available product. At the same time, Lilly emphasized that underlying prescription growth remained strong, which it used as evidence that the issue was one of timing rather than trajectory.

In that update, Lilly projected 2025 revenue of approximately $40 billion, a year-over-year increase that would place the company among the fastest-growing large-cap biopharma players. The guidance assumed meaningful incremental manufacturing capacity coming online across multiple sites, as well as continued expansion of its incretin portfolio across diabetes, obesity, and related cardiometabolic conditions.¹

Management framed the outlook as a transition year, one in which near-term variability would give way to greater consistency as production scaled and inventory normalized.¹ The company also reiterated its commitment to reinvesting cash flow into both capacity expansion and pipeline advancement. It also signaled that 2025 would be less about margin optimization and more about reinforcing long-term growth foundations.

Sources

1. Lilly provides Update on 2024 Revenue Guidance, Announces 2025 Revenue Guidance Eli Lilly and Company January 14, 2025 https://investor.lilly.com/news-releases/news-release-details/lilly-provides-update-2024-revenue-guidance-announces-2025
2. Eli Lilly’s Stock Falls After 2024 Guidance Misses Forecasts StatNews Janurary 14, 2025 https://www.statnews.com/2025/01/14/eli-lilly-fourth-quarter-sales-mounjaro-zepbound/
3. Lilly Projects 2024 Revenue Miss as Zepbound, Mounjaro Disappoint BioSpace Janurary 14, 2025 https://www.biospace.com/business/lilly-projects-2024-revenue-miss-as-zepbound-mounjaro-disappoint
4. JP Morgan 2025: Eli Lilly misses 2024 revenue estimate by $400m Pharmaceutical Technology Janurary 15, 2025 https://www.pharmaceutical-technology.com/news/jp-morgan-2025-eli-lilly-misses-2024-revenue-estimate-by-400m/?cf-view