After releasing its full-year 2025 and 2026 earnings per share (EPS) guidance, Pfizer’s stock dropped 5% on Tuesday, December 16. Since 2023, Pfizer’s shares have dropped upwards of 50%.³

The drop reflects investors reactions to Pfizer’s new 2026 revenue forecasts, which is set to be between the range of $59.5 billion to $62.5 billion, a decline of $1.5 billion from 2025’s estimated revenue of $62 billion.¹

The decrease in revenue forecasts stems from lower sales of Pfizer’s Covid vaccines, drug patent expirations, and price cuts in the U.S. market.

Pfizer has maintained a dividend but has yet to undergo share repurchases for 2025, as executives said they would “continue to steer cash into development programs rather than stock repurchases.”²

"Obviously I would love to do share repurchases," chief financial officer David Denton said on a conference call, Yahoo Finance reports. "The reality is at this point in time; I think the best and highest use of capital is continued investment in business development."

Pfizer’s full-year 2026 revenue guidance

Pfizer’s anticipated full-year 2026 revenue guidance includes the company’s expectation of revenues from its Covid-19 products being around $1.5 billion lower than what was previously expected in 2025, along with an expected year-over-year negative revenue impact of approximately $1.5 billion due to certain products experiencing loss of exclusivity (LOE).¹

Pfizer expects full-year 2026 operational revenue growth at the midpoint, excluding both Covid-19 and LOE products, to be approximately 4% year-over-year.¹

“Once 2028 is behind us, the vast majority of those LOEs are done and the growth drivers that we invest in over the next several years will be maintained and that should allow us to begin to accelerate the top line,” Denton said in a conference call.

Pfizer is expecting its full-year 2026 adjusted SI&A expenses to be between $12.5 to $13.5 billion, a reflection of its ongoing progress with its Cost Realignment Program.¹ The company also anticipates its full-year 2026 adjusted R&D expenses to be in the range of $10.5 to $11.5 billion, reflecting continued focus on prioritization in key therapeutic areas and maximizing the development of PF-08634404, a PD-1 x VEGF bispecific antibody in-licensed from 3SBio, along with multiple clinical programs from Metsera. Pfizer expects its total 2026 adjusted SI&A and R&D expenses to be in the range of $23.0 to $25.0 billion.¹

Pfizer’s 2025 financial guidance compared to its 2026 finical guidance

• COVID-19 Products
  • 2025: $6.5 billion
  • 2026: $5.0 billion

• Adjusted SI&A Expenses
  • 2025: $13.1– $14.1 billion
  • 2026: $12.5– $13.5 billion

• Adjusted R&D Expenses
  • 2025: $10.0 – $11.0 billion
  • 2026: $10.5 – $11.5 billion

• Effective Tax Rate on Adjusted Income
  • 2025: Approximately 11%
  • 2026: Approximately 15%

• Adjusted Diluted EPS
  • 2025: $3.00-$3.15
  • 2026: $2.80- $3.00

Pfizer’s CEO statement

“2025 was a year of strong execution and strategic progress for Pfizer. We’ve strengthened our foundation, advanced our R&D pipeline and positioned our company for sustainable growth in the post-LOE period. As we move into 2026, we’re focused on serving patients with innovative medicines and vaccines while creating long-term value for our shareholders,” said Albert Bourla, PhD, CEO, Pfizer, in a press release.²

Sources

1. Pfizer Reaffirms Full-Year 2025 EPS Guidance and Provides Full-Year 2026 Guidance Pfizer December 16, 2025 https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20251216635323/en/Pfizer-Reaffirms-Full-Year-2025-EPS-Guidance-and-Provides-Full-Year-2026-Guidance
2. Pfizer Reaffirms Full-Year 2025 EPS Guidance and Provides Full-Year 2026 Guidance Yahoo Finance December 16, 2025 https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pfizer-reaffirms-full-2025-eps-114500692.html
3. Pfizer faces challenging years on fading COVID sales, margin pressure Reuters December 16, 2025 https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/pfizer-forecasts-2026-profit-below-expectations-2025-12-16/