Sovaldi “Biggest Selling Drug” by 2020

Gilead’s hepatitis C treatment Sovaldi will top the list of biggest selling drugs in 2020, according to UK market intelligence company, Evaluate.

“Given its history-making launch, it is no surprise that [Sovaldi] is forecast to become the biggest drug in 2020; the big question will be how long this drug can hang onto the top spot,” said Lisa Urquhart, leader of Evaluate’s EP Vantage editorial team.

For Sovaldi to remain a $13bn+ franchise after 2017, several assumptions need to play out, says EP Vantage. The number of new patients seeking treatment for hepatitis C each year must hold up, particularly in the US, while Gilead also needs to maintain the product’s price. This could be driven down by payers or aggressive price competition from new entrants.

EP Vantage’s “Biggest Drugs 2020” also reveals a surprise entrant to the list of 2020′s top selling drugs in Bristol-Myers Squibb’s anti-PD-1 antibody, nivolumab. While this remains the list’s “biggest unknown”, as an immune checkpoint inhibitor it promises big improvements in the treatment of cancers like melanoma and lung, says the report. “With the first phase III data due to start emerging towards the end of this year or early 2015, the real potential of nivolumab and others in its class will soon be judged with greater insight.”

Evaluate’s  annual report, “World Preview 2014: Outlook to 2020”, examining the impact of patent expirations and analysing R&D spend as well as the leading products and companies, will be launched at next month’s 2014 BIO Convention in San Diego, CA (June 23–26).

For more information on the “Biggest Drugs of 2020″, click here.