“Strategy is about making choices and trade-offs. It’s about choosing to be different,” as Michael Porter famously stated. In a pharmaceutical world dominated by uncertainty and complexity—whether due to the impact of Most-Favoured-Nation (MFN²), the challenges of a product launch, or an impending loss of exclusivity—it has become critical to pressure-test strategy. This requires a holistic approach that goes beyond intellectual analysis, by immersing teams in the possibilities of the future through lived experience.

Welcome to the world of competitive simulation, also known as wargaming. This approach provides a safe space to pressure-test and refine strategies and plans in a scenario-based setting.

The Origin of Competitive Simulation

The concept dates back to ancient military simulations developed over two centuries ago by Johann Hellwig¹, who created a tactical chess-like exercise to train officers in military strategy. In the 1980s, this practice was adapted for business contexts and became highly relevant for major strategic or program preparations—such as those faced by pharmaceutical leaders.

The Lived Experience of Competitive Simulation

Competitive simulation is a powerful exercise for leaders and their teams, enabling them to move from strategy to execution in a safe environment. It allows exploration of different scenarios, pressure-testing of plans, analysis of potential competitor moves, and anticipation of major market shifts. This goes beyond simple strategy refinement by creating a lived experience for cross-functional teams and sparking those famous “Eureka” moments. After such an exercise, strategies and plans require little explanation—the team has lived them.

Why competitive simulation is so relevant today

In a fast-moving pharmaceutical world, competitive simulation provides the space for:

1. Navigating an uncertain complex world: With rapid changes in market access, technological transformation, and political dynamics, strategies require more rigorous pressure-testing than ever. Competitive simulation offers a safe environment to do just that.
2. Being proactive vs reactive: Strategies may require sudden changes in the face of competitor move or market shift. Competitive simulation enables leaders to role-play responses before the event occurs.
3. Thinking cross-functional: As the healthcare ecosystem becomes increasingly integrated, a single shift can impact an entire cross-functional team or even the whole company. Competitive simulation helps teams think beyond the obvious, anticipating two to three moves ahead.

In today’s world, competitive simulation is highly relevant across all stages of the product lifecycle. It supports the pre-clinical phase by shaping the clinical program or defining the launch sequence; during Phase 2/3 by preparing for clinical trial outcomes or refining the brand value proposition; at launch by planning for market entry or anticipating new competitor moves; and post-loss of exclusivity by developing strategies for sustained performance.

When to Consider a Competitive Simulation

Competitive simulations are typically organized for major brand or market events. Common use cases include:

1. Competitive readiness (wargaming): Preparing for a launch in a highly competitive market, anticipating a major competitor’s entry, or planning for a loss of exclusivity.
2. Brand strategy pressure-testing: Testing brand positioning and narrative or reviewing optimal launch sequences.
3. Commercial & Go-To-Market readiness: Ensuring cross-functional alignment for a launch or upcoming market change (e.g., MFN²) or planning entry into a new indication or geography.
4. Major program alignment: Exploring the implications of a major clinical trial or identifying key conditions for a transformation program.

What are the critical steps of a successful competitive simulation

A successful competitive simulation requires a robust and well-designed approach designed with an experienced thoughtful partner:

Step 1 – Kick off and scope the simulation

A competitive simulation starts with a strong foundation of alignment on its objective, scope and scenarios

1. Objectives focus the simulation on testing brand or portfolio strategies under different scenarios and anticipating competitor and market reactions.
2. Scope defines the contours of the exercise, including product scope (single brand vs. portfolio or corporate level), competitor scope (one competitor vs. multiple), geography (local vs. global), and stakeholder scope (e.g. HCPs vs. broader stakeholders).
3. Scenarios define the priority alternatives to be role-played on the day of the competitive simulation of critical importance for team and company

Recently, many pharma companies and biotech have enquired about competitive simulations to prepare for MFN² or the entry of new biosimilars, in addition to traditional use cases like launch preparation or competitor entry.

Step 2 – Prepare simulation package and pre-reads

Thoughtful preparation is essential and includes agenda, scenarios, pre-reads, and team design:

1. A well-structured agenda ensures alignment on objectives, team baselining, and well-developed scenarios for role-play to create optimal conditions to pressure test strategy and plans and align teams
2. Carefully designed teams provide cross-functional and cross-regional representation while fostering constructive dynamics.
3. Robust pre-reads summarize the essence of competitive simulation and include strong datasets—combining client data with proprietary competitive intelligence, market landscape, and disease area insights.

Examples of useful datasets include curated internal data (e.g., recent ATU or competitive intelligence) combined with external proprietary sources such as product intelligence database, or disease landscape and forecast³.

Step 3 – Facilitate the Simulation

The art of competitive simulation lies in bringing the exercise to life and creating optimal conditions. This fosters a competitive mindset, challenges assumptions, and uncovers blind spots.

For example, a large pharma company organized a two-day workshop themed around the “Far West” to analyse the output of a major clinical trial. Over 70 participants from global functions and regions were split into company and competitor teams, each adopting cowboy personas. This creative setup enabled successful role-play, generating numerous “Eureka” moments and alignment that lasted for a year as findings were implemented.

Step 4 – Consolidate insights and next steps

Competitive simulation goes beyond a one-off exercise. A good capture of insights during the workshop is critical for adequate follow-through. Post-workshop reports should include objectives, key discussion points, and a thoughtful strategic summary with implications and next steps.

In major programs, follow-up actions are often managed by members of the project management team due to the critical nature of the outputs.

How competitive simulation benefit teams beyond strategy

Its effectiveness lies in thoughtful scoping, preparation, facilitation, and the immersive experience that creates “Eureka” moments. Key benefits are the results of the combination of several factors.

1. A safe space: Strategies can be pressure-tested without real-world risk
2. An engaging exercise: Teams enjoy testing new ideas, making bold moves, and breaking out of their comfort zones
3. An insightful event: This a clear meaningful event that leads to immediate insight and needs no real interpretation by management as called a Type 1 event⁴

Competitive simulation offers a holistic approach to strategy—moving from strategy to execution and from insight to impact, ensuring cross-functional alignment, and maximizing value. It is a lived experience exercise very relevant and worth revisiting in today’s uncertain and complex pharmaceutical landscape.

Sources

1. Jack Sutton, V&A museum, Skill and Strategy: A Brief History of Wargames, Oct 2020. https://www.vam.ac.uk/blog/news/skill-and-strategy-a-brief-history-of-wargames?srsltid=AfmBOorkCSzrRdWX0HXEWXr8RlpKDHjmIkGjzMWTL3Wo-EsnyAW-XHQx
2. The White House, Delivering most-favored-nation prescription drug pricing to American patients, May 2025. https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/05/delivering-most-favored-nation-prescription-drug-pricing-to-american-patients/
3. Clarivate Life science and Healthcare, 2026. Life Sciences and Healthcare | Clarivate
4. Brent Gleeson, Forbes, 4 Types Of Experiences That Define Your Company Culture, And How To Improve Them, 2016. https://www.forbes.com/sites/brentgleeson/2016/08/01/4-types-of-experiences-that-define-your-company-culture-and-how-to-improve-them/