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This is the time of year to not only reflect on the past, but to ponder the future.Forget soothsayers, prophets, and fortune tellers' crystal balls. Inside are predictions from some of industry's key thought leaders.

Magic Molecules

China's large patient base and concentrated specialty hospitals make it easier to recruit patients for clinical trials in than in the United States. On average, companies can save from two to five months by conducting a Phase I study in China.

The British trade association says the cuts are unnecessary because drug prices have fallen in real terms by 10-15 percent during the last 10 years while the UK government's budget has remained steady.

Expanded coverage for the uninsured and Medicaid reform are low priorities at the White House.

Journalists try to tell both sides of a story. That's fine when there are two groups in conflict. But how do you tell the story right when the real conflict is between the two halves of one ambivalent opinion.

Pharm Exec's Pipeline Report is packed with 25 of the year's most eye-catching experimental drugs. What's their secret? No smoke or mirrors-just innovative science, therapeutic value, and good business sense.

If trial results never reach the public, researchers could waste time repeating lines of inquiry that have already proven unsuccessful.

Lifecycle management and line extensions helped the Percocet franchise generate steady annual growth, rising from $40 million in 1997 sales to $214 million in 2003, despite the fact that it had no patent protection.

The global pain market will reach nearly $29.8 billion in 2008, of which $21.8 billion will come from the United States.

Reeve had done something that many of us who communicate about health issues try in vain to accomplish.

Patient Centric

Acambis'smallpox vaccine will be among the first biodefense products to come to market under the three-month old US BioShield law.

How Kos Pharmaceuticals turned a 50-year-old drug for raising HDL cholesterol into a brand-new, burgeoning business.

The marketing challenge for every business is to sell products against a backdrop of competitive forces, technological developments, and established industry rules. While change is a constant, the natural tendency within each of these zones is to operate in some kind of normalcy, and for the relationships among them to interact in equilibrium. There are times, of course, when profound change occurs. These might be called "tipping points," where the weight of something new overwhelms the established logic.

Waxman promised to put teeth in the proposal by levying fines on sponsors of clinical trials that fail to comply.

In an effort to diffuse the impact of generic competition, revitalize established brands, and enhance patient convenience for long-term drug therapy, pharma companies are offering an increasing number of combination drugs. These products can expand disease markets and increase patient compliance, while reducing consumer copayments, thereby benefiting pharma companies and patients.

In the real world, progress doesn’t result in fewer complaints. It leads to complaining about better things.

Brand managers assume that more information leads to more effectiveness. Unfortunately, the reverse is true.

The fakes likely entered the market through internet commerce, yet the government seems to be encouraging online pharmacies by discussing a shakeup of retail drugstores.

TOC

There's a reason the political parties have formally embraced the Hispanic market this election year: The number of US Hispanic adults (age 18 and older) is topping off at almost 25 million in 2004. And there's a reason the parties are using culturally relevant messaging and Spanish-language content: 40 percent of US Hispanics are foreign born.

The key is to convert raw data into actionable intelligence that can enhance operations and improve decision making.

Unfortunately, companies sometimes violate the public trust by issuing false or misleading statements about FDA-related issues, such as the progress of FDA's pre-market review. When we identify suspected misstatements, we have a new process to bring them to the attention of the SEC staff as quickly and efficiently as possible." Then FDA Commissioner Mark McClellan issued that statement in a February press release.

Pharma marketing appears to operate in a world of its own. When US ad expenditures dipped in 2001, pharma's spend marched steadily on. (See "A Different Drum.") Now, as the ad industry celebrates the quadrennial coincidence of the Olympics and the US presidential campaign, is pharma taking notice? "Not really," says Anne Devereaux, chief integration officer at BBDO.

September Table of Contents

The dynamic that drove the profits out of infant formula is about to be repeated-this time in pharma.

Electronic product codes (EPCs) provide a nearly perfect solution for many of pharma's problems with counterfeiting, diversion, theft, and the like.